Tinubu's Big Bet Is Starting to Pay Off — But Can Nigerians Feel It Yet?

Tinubu's Big Bet Is Starting to Pay Off — But Can Nigerians Feel It Yet?** President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made a difficult choice when he took office: continue with an economic system that was placing enormous pressure on government finances, or make painful changes and hope they create a stronger Nigerian economy. He chose the second option. More than three years later, supporters of the administration argue that the gamble is beginning to produce results. ### The reforms nobody wanted to start Tinubu's administration removed the petrol subsidy and introduced major foreign-exchange reforms — decisions that immediately created hardship for millions of Nigerians. But Nigeria's Finance Minister, Wale Edun, and Finance Ministry officials have argued that the reforms helped prevent a potential economic collapse and have strengthened public finances. Reuters recently reported that the reforms have been welcomed by international investors and lenders, even though they created significant short-term pressure on households. That distinction is important. Economic reform is rarely comfortable at the beginning. The real test is whether today's sacrifice eventually produces a stronger economy, more investment, better infrastructure and more opportunities. ### Nigeria is positioning for the next phase The Tinubu administration says the country is now moving toward a more robust phase of economic growth, with continued investment planned in roads, railways, ports, airports, power, healthcare, education, agriculture and other sectors. The government has also highlighted efforts to attract investment and deepen Nigeria's capital market. Tinubu recently reaffirmed his administration's commitment to using the capital market as an engine of economic transformation and announced plans connected to the eventual listing of NNPC Limited on the Nigerian Exchange. These are not overnight solutions. But they represent a broader attempt to move Nigeria from dependence on government spending toward a more investment-driven economy. ### The political question With the 2027 presidential election approaching, Tinubu's economic record will inevitably become one of the biggest issues on the campaign trail. Supporters say Nigerians should give the reforms time to mature. Critics argue that ordinary citizens have waited long enough and should already be feeling stronger improvements in their daily lives. That debate will become even louder as the election approaches. For Tinubu, however, the message is clear: **The reforms have been painful, but the administration believes they are laying the foundation for a stronger Nigeria.** The challenge now is turning macroeconomic improvement into something Nigerians can see in their wallets, businesses, communities and homes. If that happens, the President will have a powerful story to tell voters in 2027. **Tinubu's biggest political argument may ultimately be simple: “Give the reforms time, and judge the results.”**